It is possible to improve the benefit guidelines for vaccination, the recovery of raw materials, employment and aid, and in most cases the analysts endorse it.
Three out of every four companies on the Ibex 35 have exceeded analysts’ estimates with their profits for the first half of 2021. Somewhat less, 65% of the companies in the main index in Spain increased their profits compared to the same period in 2020. industrial companies (with Fluidra as the main example), and those related to raw materials ( ArcelorMittal , Acerinox and Repsol ), but the trend is generalized, also in Europe, and in the United States.
Reconstruction after the pandemic is advancing, thanks to vaccination, the first rebound in demand contained by restrictions and fear of the coronavirus, job protection, the rise in prices of oil, gas and other basic resources and the arrival of recovery funds.
The results show it, and it is reinforced by the fact that 10 Ibex firms have emboldened and improved their profit targets, in most cases with the endorsement of analysts’ forecasts, after presenting the accounts for the first half of the year.
Even a bank like Caixabank ?? with the ballast in profitability that for the financial sector means that the European Central Bank (ECB) keeps intact its intention not to stifle the recovery by raising interest rates ?? You have improved your cost saving target .
Fluidra
The Catalan company is an atypical industrialist that has taken advantage of the historic opportunity provided by the coronavirus pandemic ?? the demand for swimming pools has skyrocketed due to “the trend of outdoor life and the exodus to the outskirts of cities”, as stand out in Fluidra itself ??, thanks to the global leadership of its specialization.
The conquest of a place in the Ibex 35 reflects the idyllic moment of the business, and of the company, which is returning with record profits what the market has been advancing in recent months ?? its shares rise 360% from the lows of March 2020, up to highs ??.
The direction of Fluidra’s growth rhythm is so vertical that raising its objective of year-on-year increase in net profit in 2021 from 50-60% to 80-90%? This was announced on July 30? means prudence according to the expectations of the consensus of analysts that follows its price, which points to an improvement in earnings of almost 150% in the same period.
“With our leading platform we are prepared for continuous growth, increased margins and great cash generation”, stated in the publication of the semi-annual accounts Eloi Planes, executive president of Fluidra, who now faces the difficult task of not disappointing, with everyone the eyes of the market attentive and swollen with euphoria.
The 90% growth guide for Fluidra’s profit continues to fall short for analysts
Repsol
The scenario has totally changed for Repsol from the first half of 2020 to the first half of 2021 due to the rise in oil and gas prices. For this reason, and for greater profitability, the company has allowed itself to increase the EBITDA target (gross profit) for 2021 to 6,100 million euros, from the previous 5,800 million guide, and project growth to 6,600 million in 2022 , in line with the figures that analysts had already been handling.
“Repsol is one of the multi-energy companies with the best prospects: it has a healthy balance sheet, is trading at low multiples, attractive dividend yield (5.7%) and its presence in the renewables area is increasing”, highlights the Bankinter’s team of experts.
Telephone
From “stable” to “stable or slight growth”. The improvement of Telefónica’s revenue and ebitda targets in 2021 could be considered negligible in any other company: without concrete figures, adding a nuance, the adjective, loaded with prudence …
But it is not negligible in the case of the teleco, in need of good news and optimism in a hypercompetitive market, in which it starts with the advantage of its own structure.
“We value positively the return to positive growth, the significant reduction in debt that removes the risk of a downgrade of the group’s rating and gives sustainability to the dividend (yield of about 8%), the recovery of the Brazilian real and the greater visibility in the future of goals and performance in the UK,
The consensus that follows its price? Telefónica is on the stock market close to 5% of the first peak after the sinking of Covid, 4.3 euros, after recovering 60% from the ground in October 2020? It partially dismantles the teleco’s objective for 2021: it expects a 9% drop in revenues, but estimates a strong improvement in the margin, which will raise ebitda by 10%.
Indra
The first results under the management of Cristina Ruiz and Ignacio Mataix as CEOs of the firm have confirmed that the post-pandemic recovery is a fact. Indra closed the first semester with a net profit of 55 million compared to the losses of 75 million in the same period of 2020. The figure also means that Indra has increased the profits it obtained in the first half of 2019 by 63%.
On the other hand, its income increased by 9% to 1,618 million and achieved an EBITDA of 146 million compared to the losses of 16 million reported in June of last year. This good evolution has led the company to improve its annual revenue forecasts by 10% to 3,200 million and to set a new ebit target that exceeds by 20 million those projected in the first guide, “
Telefónica introduces “slight growth” in its plan due to a rise in the real and the agreement in the United Kingdom
Naturgy
In the last week the electricity company has published a 45% higher six-month profit due to the increase in demand and energy prices, has presented a strategic plan for 2021-2025 where it contemplates investments worth 14,000 million, and has known that the The Spanish government has given the green light this week to the IFM takeover of Naturgy with conditions.
Precisely, it has been in the new roadmap in which the utility has set an EBITDA target of 4.8 billion euros for 2025, as well as an ordinary net profit of 1.600. In this case the experts still do not give credit to these numbers.
The FactSet forecasts remain 18% below in the case of ebitda, up to 3,936 million, and 19% in that of profit, up to 1,289 million. All in all, and from the stock market point of view, the firm chaired by Francisco Reynés scores increases of 15% in a year in which power companies are the only sector in the Old Continent in the red with losses of 0.3%.
Acerinox
The steelmaker obtained its best semi-annual results since 2007, with an ebitda of 378 million euros (130% more than the same period of 2020) and a profit after taxes and minority interests of 203 million euros (78 in the first quarter and 125 in the second), compared to only 2 million euros in the period January-June 2020.
Numbers that lead the company led by Bernardo Velázquez to estimate that “the third quarter EBITDA will be better than that of the second quarter, both in the stainless steel division and in the of high-performance alloys, “says the company.
A relevant forecast taking into account that it could advance the objective set by the market consensus of achieving the best ebitda since 2007 in 2022. Now the objective could be achieved by the end of this year and the consensus places it at 752 million euros in 2021,
ArcelorMittal
The other Ibex steelmaker has not wanted to be left behind, beating records and has obtained the best half-yearly profits in 13 years , which has led it to improve its forecasts for the second part of 2021 and expects that “both production and orders will be higher. “When the end of 2021.
Thus, the company’s management has increased the capex forecast for this year to 3,100 million dollars (practically in line with what the consensus expects), which already exceeds 2,900 million (not counting on the US). nor Ilva) that were used for investments. In addition, Arcelor has improved its global demand projections for 2021 between 7.5% and 8.5% growth, compared to the initial 4.5% -5.5%.
Cellnex
At maximums, it exceeds stock prices prior to the Covid crash by 35%, and is already close to 40,000 million euros of capitalization, despite the indebtedness, the macro capital increase in March, even despite taking a few months without announcing an acquisition.
Everything is approached from a different perspective with respect to Cellnex in the market due to the voracity demonstrated in recent years, and, above all, due to the ability to transform it into growth.
The last message that corroborates it was launched together with the results of the first semester: it assured that it will reach an ebitda of between 1,910 and 1,930 million euros this year, compared to the 1,815 / 1,855 range that it previously anticipated. The consensus of analysts does not finish going so fast: the average expectation remains at the high end of the original guide, the one before the improvement, but the prices of the shares have not suffered.
Almirall
Following what analysts already presumed, the Catalan pharmaceutical company has raised a gear to its core ebitda target (not including extraordinary items), confirming the surpass in 2019, from 210 million euros in the best scenario to 215 for the new launches (Klisyri , Lebrikizumab, Seysara in China and Wynzora) and the projects that are coming out. Total gross profit will approach 240 million, according to forecasts.
